apostrophe - The Jones's, Joneses, or Jones'?

I am calligraphing holiday ornaments. I have been given a list of names. Which is correct when a name ends in an es, "The Jones's, or The Joneses, or The Jones'?"

Also, when it does not end in an es, is it "The Smith's, The Smithes, or The Smiths', or The Smiths ?"