In South Asia, we tend to use "I think" when we are almost sure about something; or sometimes use it ironically like in example "I think you should have done this yesterday".
"I guess", on the other hand, is used when the person is not sure himself like in "I guess you come here often".
Now as I talked to some North American people, I noticed that they use the two terms oppositely. That is, "I guess" when they are almost sure and "I think" when not. So I want to know which is the correct way to use these terms? Or are they just equivalent?
Answer
The difference is a qualitative one, not quantitative describing probability.
It varies by context, but typically, "I think" indicates that you're basing what you're about to say based primarily on knowledge, thought or experiences you had before the current situation, whereas "I guess" indicates that you're doing on-the-spot speculation at that moment. The presence of either word doesn't indicate a level of certainty (this is given by context, including the tone in which it is spoken.)
Example:
A: I need to go home soon. It's 11 PM now, when does the last train leave?
B: I think it's at 10 PM. Let me check. Yeah, 10 PM. I guess you have to call a cab.
B uses "I think" because he's recalling information he had before, and uses "I guess" when he's doing an on-the-spot appraisal of the current situation.
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