grammar - Is there a difference between the usage of "this" or "that" when referring back to an idea in the previous sentence?

In the following two sentences, is there any difference in what "this" or "that" would indicate about the previous sentence? Would one of them be less accurate than the other?

We may run out of gasoline before the finish line. This would create a problem that isn't easily resolved.

We may run out of gasoline before the finish line. That would create a problem that isn't easily resolved.

I suspect that "that" is more useful when referring to distant things or uncertainties, whereas "this" is more useful when referring to direct, actual instances of something, but I may be wrong.

I would like to know the difference between these two words in any given situation instead of merely knowing the correct usage for this one example that I've provided.

Answer

This and that are demonstratives and in this context, deictic. Either may be used, depending on whether you consider yourself near the first sentence (use this) or whether you have notionally moved away from it (use that).

Demonstratives (abbreviated DEM) are words, such as this and that, used to indicate which entities are being referred to and to distinguish those entities from others. They are typically deictic, their meaning depending on a particular frame of its reference.
- wikipedia